Day Trading Review for the Week starting 17th of September, 2018

So for the 2nd week since going live with TradeNet/TEFs, in terms of profits, was definitely far better than my 1st week! This week I grossed $434.57 versus $186.75 which turns out to $336.17 versus $116.40 after commissions and fees. On the surface, this does appear to be really good and in fact I am happy to be green. However, when you dig deeper, it turns out that I really didn't trade that well!

Firstly, my accuracy fell from 58.8% all the way down to 41.7%! I took a total of 24 trades this week versus only 17 last week. These trades included a lot of really poor set-ups hence the fall off in accuracy. Where I did compensate, however, for this fall off in accuracy was with a few really solid winners that resulted in my average winner being $87.96 versus $47.23 from last week and my average loser this week was only -$31.81 versus -$40.79 from last week giving me a ratio of avg.winner/avg. loser of 2.76 which is really, really good as it far exceeds the 1.5 to 2 range I like to shoot for. 

So the adjustments I made after last week's analysis definitely worked and up until Wednesday's close I actually traded really well. In fact, Wednesday was record day for me as I recorded something in the region of $370 in gross profits! To be honest, I think this was my problem I got overconfident on Thursday and this lead to some really sloppy trading on that day. I ended up taking 4 trades, all losers and lost something like $225 in that single session! I really should have stopped trading after the 2nd loser as I could sense something off with my trading. Even more so, after my 3rd consecutive loser I definitely should have shut up shop as I like to give my self 3 strikes maximum before calling it a day. 

Things I want to work on for the final week of September and going forward:

1. Adherence to my 3 strikes rule! If I am to stay in this game, I need to be disciplined and call it quits after 3 consecutive losing trades. There's always another day!

2. I'm going to take both unrealized and realized PnL off my trading platform for 2 reasons. The first reason relates to trade management. I've found myself making trade management decisions based on unrealized PnL and this has been causing me to leave profits on the table! I need to focus on the price action and volume of the stock instead while I am in trades. Secondly, I want the way I'm feeling on the day, the market environment and the quality of opportunities that are emerging or not on the day to dictate the number of trades I take and also when I decide to call it a morning. I've found that when I'm up after 1 or 2 good trades; I'm reluctant to take quality signals for fear of giving back profits but when I am down on the day; I force trades with low quality set-ups trying to make back my losses. 

3. Not losing sight of the bigger picture idea/bias/set-up in my case the daily chart. This week I took a couple losing trades that in hindsight could have been avoided if I had just taken the time out to confirm alignment with the daily chart first. So on my technical analysis platform (ThinkorSwim), I have removed all time frames below the daily. There's only the daily, weekly and monthly. I will only then transfer a ticker to my execution platform (which has the lower time frame time charts aka 1-minute and 5-minute) to look for intra-day set-ups after it has already confirmed what I want to see it do on the daily! 

I simply want to focus on making good trade after good trade after good trade and not on PnL or making money etc. I know I have edge, I know profits will come as long as I make consistently good decisions. Looking forward to next week...let's do this!!!

My day trading review for the week starting 10th of September, 2018!

On the 10th of September, I resumed my third attempt (in a little over 1 year's time) at growing a small live account. My first 2 tries were with SureTrader; however this time around I went with TradeNet. This decision was primarily due to financial reasons as it costs much less to purchase the TradeNet intro package (I paid $399...got it at a discounted rate on a summer promotion) than to fund a SureTrader account with a minimum amount that makes sense (I'd say around $1,500-$2,000 to get sufficient wiggle room and intra-day buying power). 

That being said; I started the week with $14,000 in buying power as do all purchasers of the Tradenet intro package who choose to go live. After the close on Friday; my balance stood at $14,116.40. So essentially, I made $116.40 in profits after commissions and fees. I'm really glad that I ended the week green but I should have done way better! 

Here's the breakdown of my trades from my first week. I took a total of 17 day trades and ended with an accuracy of 58.8%. There is definitely room for improvement here but it's not so bad as I shoot for an accuracy or around 60-70%. In terms of win:loss ratio however, this is where I really fell down! My average loser was -$40.79 which is excellent considering that my risk is set at $50 per trade. My average winner on the other hand was only a disappointing $47.23 giving me a win:loss ratio of only 1.16; well below the 1.5-2.0 range I'd it like to be.

Looking back at my journal; I noticed two major glaring issues and a minor one that were the causes of my below par win:loss ratio: 

1) adjusting my initial stop loss too early and too aggressively thereby stopping my self out of perfectly good trades! To fix this issue; I will continue placing a hard stop after putting on the trade but I will not touch this initial hard stop until I get to take my first partial off at or near 2:1 if my stop does not get hit first. 

2) hesitating to take my first partial off at or near 2:1 as per my trading plan due to greed and nit picking the exit price. To address this I've added hot buttons to my montage to either "Sell Half" position or "Buy Half" position at market. So price gets at or near my 2:1 zone; I hit the relevant hot button and take half off as per my plan instead of nit picking over a couple extra cents with limit orders.

A third but not as serious issue was jumping the gun on a couple entries before getting confirmation and also taking a few trades that didn't have realistic 2:1 risk/reward potential. To address this issue; I will change the default order type to "STOP LIMIT" which will force me to assess and plan out all of my trades properly before entering. 

So I will continue focusing on my process, and my strategies as outlined in "My PlayBook" while also implementing the above adjustments which should improve my accuracy but more importantly significantly improve my risk to reward ratio!

Red day on Friday... -$83.78

On Friday I ended up being a victim of lack of focus. I had what would wind out to be the 2 hottest stocks on watch but ended up trading neither of them very well. Had I simply decided to zero-in on either one; there's no doubt in my mind I would have made money.

None the less, I ended up trading both $NLNK and $KURA. The first trade I took was a long 100 shares in $NLNK on a 1-minute pullback @ $16.38. Entry was perfect; all I had to do was let the trade work. Price never even came anywhere close to dipping below my entry yet some how I panicked out selling for 11 cents profit literally just before the stock exploded 3 points higher! Big  miss!

So after botching up that trade and being forced to simply both $NLNK and $KURA rip higher as neither presented any low risk entries. I somehow convinced myself that $KURA was over extended and started looking for a short entry. When stock started looking like it wanted to roll over; I got short 100 shares @ $12.90 with a stop @ $13.25. It started working at first then started squeezing up; so I decided to take it off @ $13.10 instead of waiting for it to hit my initial stop. 

After seeing no follow through on the pop; I decided to give it a second crack and got back in short 100 @ $12.85. Once again I ended up taking the trade off for a small loss this time @ $13.00. Frustrated I decided to shut it down for the day and actually did which was the right thing to do.

However, for some reason or other, I ended up logging back in to my platform and looked back at $KURA once again. The stock was simply not cracking and starting to bounce off the 9-ema on the 5-minute chart. So my thinking was that this stock looks like its wants to re-test HOD and possibly $14. So I bought 100 shares @ $13.00 with the intention of selling around $14.00 for a quick $100 profit to end the day slightly green. Once again I ended up stopping for a 15 cents loss before finally throwing in the towel. 

LESSON LEARNED: I need to narrow my focus to a single stock at the open. At the moment I am only able to trade from a single 13" laptop screen and have limited screen real estate. So I am only able to look at one chart/one stock at a time. As a consequence of this I have to keep  switching back and forth between tickers and this is causing me to miss set-ups/entries. So to solve this problem; I have to pick one stock by at least the first minute or two after the open if I'm not able to earlier to focus on nailing. Can't be worried about missing moves in other stocks as its better to  nail a mediocre move than poorly trade several stocks that all made big moves as was the case for me on Friday.

Stupid mistake leads to my first red day of the month! -$130.08

So today I took only one trade (my per trade risk at the moment is only $50) yet ended up hitting my max daily loss limit ($100)!

How did this happen...

As you can see above, the single trade I took was in $ALNY. After seeing the stock try to rally; get stuffed hard on volume and then coil up forming a text-book pennant; my thought was this stock's heading lower! 

So as the stock looked like it was about to break down from the formation; I hit it short 100 shares @ $75.10 with a mental stop just above the pennant @ $75.60 and target of the pre-market low around $73.19ish. 

This trade never really moved in my favor and I was prepared to take the loss once the price violated my stop area as mentioned above. I actually had a limit order prepared at $75.75 (giving it some room above the stock level as I know these stocks move fast especially at the open); however I was wayyyyyy too slow to react when the stock started spiking. 

By the time I clicked to enter the limit order the bid had already jumped to the $75.90's. So I had to cancel this limit order and try to market out (which is what I should have done in the first case!) By the time I was able to enter the order to cover my position I got filled @ $76.30 for over 2x my max risk per trade and just over my daily stop; taking me out of the game for the rest of the day...OUCH!!! If I'd have just hit the market instead of trying to use the limit order; worst case I would have been out high $75.80's max...leaving me with maximum a $70-$75 loss but more importantly I would have still been able to trade and have the opportunity to take a 2nd and possibly profitable trade as was the case only yesterday!

LESSON LEARNED: My default route is "MARKET" and not "LIMIT" for a reason....it gets me in and out much fucking faster which is especially critical in the first 30 mins or so after the open and even more so in stocks gapping on fresh news like I usually play. Quibbling over a few cents of slippage makes no sense when speed is way way more important! From now on; I'll continue to focus on the "tape" for refining my entries and exits but going forward I'll consistently use "MARKET" to both enter and exit my trades!

Finally...a solid fucking day...+$245.86 profits after commissions!!!

It's been in the making but I finally managed to put together a solid day!

Ironically, unlike yesterday and last week Friday, today I started out red. 

Nothing interested me for a pre-market trade; so I decided I'll wait and see if it any of my watches would carve out a pre-market flag so that I can jump in at the open for a breakout/breakdown. However, nothing set-up so I stayed patient looking for a 1-minute pullback entry on one of my watches. 

Trade #1 & Trade #3: $TRVG did offer this set-up but I had a long bias on the stock and so I was reluctant to jump in short besides by time my mind could process a trade plan; the stock flushed and the opportunity vanished. After seeing the heavy selling in $TRVG and all of the stocks on watch being choppy I decided to wait for the 2nd 1-minute pullback to get short as the stock had seemed like it wouldn't bounce like I thought it might in pre-market. After seeing the hard rejection at VWAP and the big red bearish doji; I got in short 200 shares @ $10.80 looking for at minimum a re-test of LOD with a mental stop above the doji candle. The stock actually started dropping but then reversed hard with steady buying coming in. So I didn't even wait for it to take out the high of the doji; I stopped out $10.97 for a small and manageable loss. 

So now that $TRVG established that it was in deed going to bounce I decided to stalk it for a long set-up which came. I waited patiently for the stock to break out of the pennant it had formed around 10:15ish but didn't get filled as the stock just moved up to quickly before I could react. I was hoping to get a fill on a pullback but after the ugly 1-minute candle around 10:20ish; I decided it best to avoid the stock for the time being. My 2nd trade in the stock and 3rd trade on the day is detailed in the image below:

Trade #2: 

Tweeted about how overextended $HIMX was repeatedly yesterday and that I wanted to short it for a move down to $11ish. Well so said so done. After the stock pushed and failed $12 like I'd wanted and then tanked hard down to $11.24; I knew the short was on just gotta be patient and wait for a low risk entry. Which came around 10:30ish. Since I had strong conviction on this short; I jumped in with my max share size (500) @ $11.40 with a tight 10 cent stop. The stock actually spiked up and came to with in 1 penny of stopping me out. However, I held firm and my patience and conviction was reward as the stock started tanking allowing me to scale out in halves at $11.15 and $11.05. Not quite the $11.00 target I wanted but close enough! 

Another green but disappointing +$58.98 profit day on my small account...

What should have been a home run day for me ended up being a day I made just a little over half of my daily goal for the month of September.

As shown below; my focus today was $INSM which was the first stock to pop up on my pre-market scanner as soon as I logged in this morning. With the stock being up 100%+ on phase 3 drug news; it was a no brainer that it should be my number 1 focus (like I had tweeted) as it had also traded well north of 500,000 shares (my minimum for touching a stock) by 8:00am in pre-market.

Trade #1: This was easily the best trade I made today. After the massive run-up in early pre-market; the stock tested $25.70 three times and failed to break through on all three attempts. By the end of the 3rd failed attempt the stock had now formed a clear flat-top pattern on the 1-min chart. So I prepped a limit order @ $25.75 to get long if the .70's started getting taken out. Couple minutes later the break out started and I jumped in without hesitation getting filled at my limit. Sold off in halves as shown at $26.6 and $27.15 for a decent $100ish profit after commissions. So excellent start to the trading day.

Trade #2: After finding staunch resistance at $27.75 the stock pulled back hard but sellers could not push the stock below the previous break out level. So I figured the stock might just set up for another run higher which it eventually did. It winded up forming a clean cup-with-handle pattern on the 1-minute chart and I attempted to get long on a break of the handle looking to sell all my shares into a break of the $27.75 level but my order got rejected. I tried again and got filled this time 5 shares @ $27.35 and 95 @ $27.40. The stock proceeded to push to new highs and when I attempted to sell into the break as planned my limit order well below the current bid at the time got rejected for some reason unknown to me. This got me scarred and I ended up hitting the bids a second time getting filled @ $27.77 for a much smaller profit than I should have had. But no harm done...I was decently green on the day and the market hadn't even opened as yet!

Trade #3: So the stock opened and tanked hard; bounced and got rejected at the $28.50ish level and so I switched my bias to the short side. So after it consolidated around VWAP then started breaking to new lows I jumped in short @ $27.01 looking for a push down to $26.50. This trade was a poor trade because I was risking 50 cents to make 50 cents aka 1:1 risk/reward. None the less I tried to give it a chance to work and ended up covering in 2 parts (for what reason I don't know) at $26.77 and $26.89 for a tiny profit after commissions. Not a good trade but still solidly green on the day. 

Trade #4: After seeing the stock reclaim and consolidate above VWAP; I jumped in at $27.41 with a hard stop 5 cents below $27 looking for a push back to HOD. Now while the trade plan was not bad; my management of this trade was extremely poor. After the stock failed to follow through on the big break out candle around 10:10am; I should have adjusted my stop up to the low of this candle around $27.15ish minimizing my risk instead of letting the stock which had now clearly started showing weakness drop all the way back to my initial stop which did not get filled until $26.82. So although I don't mind getting stopped out; I gave back an unwarranted extra $30ish of my profits. 

Final Thoughts: Were it not for the unnecessarily large loss on my 4th trade; I would have been able to stay engaged with the stock and catch the down thrust for more profits. But I was not comfortable risking going red on the day and simply was not in the right mental zone to continue trading after the last 2 poor trades. So in that regard I did the right thing. However, although I've improved significantly in the timing of my entries; my trade management now needs work. I failed to milk as much profit as I should have on my 2nd trade; I needed to exit my 3rd trade in 1 cover after realizing that it wasn't going to following through instead of exiting in halves and on my 4th trade I needed to be quicker in adjusting my trailing stop loss. None the less, still thankful for the green day and looking forward to making better trades tomorrow!

Disappointing +$13.75 day...Trade review for 9/1/2017

So I've decided to start doing a written review of each of my trading days in order to see where I made mistakes and where I did well. My hope is to do this every day until I manage to grow my account to the $3,000 - $3500 level (its currently around $1,100) and then start stringing together profitable months. 

Today, I traded only $AMBA as shown in the chart below:

My pre-market plan for $AMBA was to look for a short set-up if it continued holding its down trend established in pre-market with a back of the mind target of $43 which was the low of a gap up $AMBA had made a few months back.

Well as you can see $AMBA dumped straight down to that level right out of the gates taking only 10 minutes to make the entire 3 point move I was looking for. Although I was still short biased on the stock; the stock had just basically moved straight down into a daily support level; so I decided I'd look to play the bounce.

Trade #1: I got long $43.00 when I saw the buying coming into the stock on the tape with the intention of selling the entire position in the $43.90's. I got the pop I was looking for and my finger was on the trigger to sell before my SureTrader platform starts goofing around. After logging out and logging back I realized I'd missed my opportunity to book the quick profit and got out flat after I noticed how weak the stock still was. 

Trade #2: I kept stalking the stock and wanted to get short on the re-break of $43 but decided to stay patient and wait for a more solid set up which eventually came. After seeing the stock try several times to break and hold above $43 but fail; I got short at $42.78 with stop just above the consolidation looking for a move back down and throw the LOD ($42.00). The stock came close to the LOD at which point I'd normally take 1/2 off but greed got the better of me and I decided to hold with a view selling into the break of the $42 support which never came...lol. So when I saw the buyers taking back control I got out at $42.40 for a small gain. 

Trade #3: This was hands down a poor trade. I jumped in at $42.95 after only 4 minutes of consolidation above the 9/20 ema's with stop beneath the swing low and rightly got shaken out with my stop getting filled at $42.53. But my gut feel was that this stock was way too extended to the downside and with the QQQ's rallying; a bounce was inevitable. So I stayed engaged. 

Trade #4: I waited and waited for the stock to consolidate and when it showed that it was ready to break out of the consolidation with the confirmation of the tape; I jumped in at $42.78 looking for a move up to at least $44.00 with stop loss just below $42.50 where the stock had gotten soaked but couldn't drop below. The trade started working really nicely and I stayed patient thinking that the stock would take out VWAP and pop up to $44.00. The stock tapped VWAP; consolidated beneath it then popped through just liked I'd wanted to see. So I was now looking for it to hold VWAP; maybe even dip below slightly but hold none the less then push higher. Instead it stuffed hard; so I let it bounce a bit and sold 1/2 @ $43.30 to look in some profits. I was still optimistic about getting the $44 move but after the stock popped back above VWAP then got stuffed hard again I decided to cut it and tried to sell @ $43.36 but for some reason the order did not go through and so I clicked it again. 

Trade #5: Yet again the platform froze forcing me to log out and log back in...only to see that my position was sold @ $43.36 but that I was also entered into the same sized short position @ $43.36. So fucking annoying. As it was not a trade I'd planned to be in I cut it off immediately @ $43.49 making me give back some of the already small profit I'd managed to squeeze out of $AMBA on the day. 

All in all, I ended up booking $68.75 in gross profits but only $13.75 after commissions. Although I'm disappointed that I didn't hit my daily goal ($100) which I think I would have hit easily if it weren't for the platform/internet issues; I'm still thankfully that it wasn't a losing day. Looking forward to enjoying the weekend now and recharging my batteries for next week Tuesday! 

Cheers!

Perfect game plan but yet $90 losing day! :( + Best ideas for 5/19/2017

So coming into today; I had the perfect game plan. I was expecting a bounce in the markets and had stocks on watch to play if this scenario played out. The markets bounced and $AAOI bounced perfectly off the $60 support while $PULM set up both a red-to-green play and then OPR breakout and followed through nicely although it didn't quite hit the target I had it moved enough to yield significant profit had I traded it. 

Both plays I had spelled out in my pre-market game plan. So you would expect that I'd be talking about the profits I made today! Instead I ended today another losing day and my 3rd losing day this week. Now my equity is slightly below the $1,000 starting balance at $942 ish. 

I have recognized what I changed between last week when I made $180+ in profits in only 3 trading days and this week in which I am losing $220+ in 4 trading days. Now last week, although I did play a few gappers; my primary focus after the first 15 minutes or so from the open was my best ideas from my nightly scan. However, this week I some how managed to add the top list to my platform as well as Twitter to my nightly scan ideas. So in addition to the 5-10 ideas off my scan, this week I've been trying to scan through 40+ stocks off the top list plus scan twitter for ideas. For what reason, I do not know. This distraction and spread of my focus has been causing me to be making random trades. 

Going forward I will remove these distractions and focus on my best post-market ideas and game plan. I've already removed the top list from my platform set-up. Also I will not open twitter until in the afternoon when things have slowed down and I'm just looking for entertainment if I am not in any open positions. I will focus on the 5-10 ideas I have on watch and look to trade the fuck out of 1-2 of them like I did last Friday with $AUPH. 

Before I move onto my best ideas for tomorrow; I've two thoughts/observations that I'd like to share.

Firstly I'm expecting this bounce to continue into tomorrow or if not worst case scenario we have a narrow range/doji type day. I definitely do not see the markets selling off hard again tomorrow barring some unanticipated news again. Secondly, I've noticed in the recent weeks that Chinese stocks have been very strong. So ideally I'd be looking to go long a Chinese name for my first trade tomorrow. Speaking of which my favorite is $BZUN above $22 with $23.50 target then possibly $24.

In addition to $BZUN, I also like: $IMMU (tapping the half dollar $7.50 + all-time highs; could be explosive if it breaks this level tomorrow); $EXTR above today's high with $9.30/$9.50 targets; $AKAO has been forming a cup with handle sort of base past couple months...I like this one through $26 with $27.75 intial target and then possible new 52 week high push; $SGMO above today's high for a push back to $8.60ish and finally my sole short idea $HZNP below today's low for push down to recent lows at $9.50.

Let's end this week of strong!!!

My best ideas for Thursday May 18th, 2017

So as I mentioned; I noticed that the short set-ups I was seeing had outnumbered the longs and today we had a nasty sell-off. Not saying that I predicted anything but the weakness in the markets was showing.

That being said; all of the short ideas off watch worked. I even traded one of my watches: $AFSI for a $45 profit. I really should have closed this trade when I was up $100 but greed got the better of me although this stock was surprisingly stubborn and held up around $12 late in the afternoon even while the indexes were tanking to new lows. Either way it was an okay trade.

Besides $AFSI, I also made one other trade in $SNAP. Today was my first time trading this stock and boy is this stock volatile! It moves in very sharp bursts and likes to fake-out. So gotta be very conservative with position sizing and stops. It faked me out for a small $15 loss before tanking lower in the afternoon. Could have been big winner for my small account had I managed to hold on. Ah well you live and you learn; I'll be better prepared to trade next time. 

So after commissions; I ended the day flat. No gains but I feel much better about my trading today compared to Monday and Tuesday. I was not anxious to get into positions and I did not feel like I was missing out when the markets were tanking and I wasn't short anything. I stayed patient and waited for solid intra-day setups to form. What failed me today was my trade management. So I'll be sure to work on that going forward.

With the market gapping down and selling off hard today; I anticipate either 1 of 2 scenarios will likely play out tomorrow. The first one and the one I think most likely given the recent track record of this market is that there will be a bounce in one form or other. This could play out in two ways; a big gap down right out of the gates in which case I believe a bounce day will be a shew in. Alternatively the markets might open flatish; tank hard and then reverse later in the day. The second scenario and less likely in my opinion is for the selling today to carry over into tomorrow and we have another trend down day. 

In any case; I have plays that will have me prepared to take advantage of either scenario.

So if we get a bounce day tomorrow; I will be looking to play the following stocks: 

$IPXL (off $15 support), $FRTA (off $10, riskier play since its a recent IPO and has less trading history so $10 is not a proven support level), $AAOI (my best bounce idea; a leading stock and it held up well today...will be watching for a possible buy off $60 support)

If on the other hand we get a follow through day; I'll be watching:

$DDD (below $22), $SNAP (below today's low), $AMD (my best short idea for tomorrow..will be watching it for a short set-up below today's low)

My sole long idea is $PULM low float former runner spiked big today and surprisingly managed to close strong unlike all of the other morning runners today. I'll be eyeing it for a red-to-green move/OPR breakout tomorrow with the recent high of $3.42 as my target. Hit and run trade only...do not marry!!!

Lets get it tomorrow...CHEERS!!!

My 2nd consecutive losing day + Best ideas for today!

So today I made 2 trades both of them losers.

The first one was a pre-market entry in $XGTI anticipating a spike on the open which never came. So I cut it quickly for a tiny loss. Wasn't the worst trade in the world but with only $50 risk to work with each day I really shouldn't be trading pre-market!

Then I saw $CLDR which I had been stalking for days and in which I had took a loss in on Monday setting up an OPR play just beneath the $21.75 level with the $22 all-time high magnet just above. Near perfects set-up!! I decided I wanted in but I wanted to wait for the confirmed break of $21.75. So I set a stop limit order at $21.76 but my mistake was not off setting it a few cents to increase my odds of getting a filled. What do you...the stock ripped right through the level; triggered my stop but I never got filled.

Sort of frustrated; I saw $IMGN beneath $5 and thought I'd take this long through $4.95 in anticipation of the break of $5. I had no exit plan for this trade. Then on a rush of blood; I entered it long @ $4.93 without waiting for the confirmed break of the flag and within seconds the stock reversed and was at my stop out level! I took the loss and shut down my platform for day....down a whopping $70 + $20 in commissions!!!

Although my losses were $40 in excess of my max daily loss; its not catastrophic by any means. Plus I am still up from my starting $1,000 balance. My plan going forward is to re-focus and wait for A-quality set-ups. I will stop looking for gap-and-go plays until I have more daily risk to work with. I will let the market open and wait for clean set-ups in either one of the stocks off my night watch list or an "in-play" stock.

With that out of the way; here are my best ideas for today...

$PIRS this is my #1 watcher and I will be eyeing for a red-to-green/OPR break play

Besides this I also have alerts set on:

SHORTS:

$NOMD (below $12.8), $AFSI ( below $12.4), $ACAD (below $28), $WTW (below $24), $BTU (below $23.9), $EXAS (below $31.60)

LONGS:

$EXAS (above $32.60), $CHGG (above $11.72), $BITA (above $31.65)

Just an observation but I am beginning to see a lot more short set-ups than longs. Very stocks have been holding their mornings gains. There have been almost no 50%+ day runners. So taking quick profits especially on longs makes sense at the moment in my opinion.

Best of luck....here's to a solid day of trading...CHEERS!!!

My best trade of the week + My watch list for Monday May 15th, 2017

So my best trade of last week, although not my biggest gainer, was the trade I took in $AUPH on Friday.



This idea came from my night scan. After making a massive run in early March; $AUPH has been coiling in a tight range for weeks. Further it has a low float and is highly shorted. So I know a lot of traders will be watching for a break out from this consolidation.

Although it didn't quite make the break out I was looking for I was very happy with the way I managed trade.

1st Entry: So I made my first buy (500 shares @ $7.50) as the stock went from red to green on the day round 10:00 am. and it forced me to be patient as it went no where for about 1 hr. Since it never came close to my stop which was at LOD and my conviction in the trade was very strong I was patient. Also it did a similar thing on Thursday; small gap down...1 and 1/2 hour consolidation then break to the upside.

1st Exit: I sold 1/2 my position (250 shares) @ $7.72 into the $7.75 resistance level as at this point the stock was up 3 solid green candles in a row on the 5 minute chart plus running into resistance. After this sell I then adjusted my trailing stop loss to break even for the remaining 250 shares and allowed the stock to do its thing.

2nd Entry: With stock consolidating nicely beneath resistance and the $QQQ's doing the same just off all-time highs my thinking was that this stock could be setting up for a second leg higher and possible push to $8.00. With the profit cushion I had plus the setup the stock was forming I was confident about pushing for a home-run. So I added 400 shares @ $7.69 and in the process put my account on full 6:1 intra-day margin! Although I was fully margined my risk on this trade was minimal as my stop on the entire position was now at $7.62

Final Exit: The stock tapped $7.75 and consolidating in a 5 cent range for about 30 mins. This was exactly the sort of price action I was looking for. The intra-day chart had now formed what appeared to be an ascending triangle. So if it resolved to the upside; I was going to profit big. However, if it didn't I know it could just as easily tank hard. So I adjusted my stop to 1 penny beneath the low of the 5 cent range and was stopped flat on the 400 shares I had added but for a small gain on the 250 shares I was holding from the initial purchase.

Final Thoughts: I ended up making about $100 on this trade or about a 10% return on account but this trade had the potential to be a $300+ winner! These are the sort of positions I love to be; guaranteed decent profit with possibility of a home run if the stock wants to give it me. Overall I was very pleased about my emotions during the trade and I pretty much followed my trading rules perfectly. If you have a proven system and you follow your rules; profits will come! Focus on making good trade after good trade after trade and not on making money. Thinking about how much money you're going to make instead of thinking of making good decisions is what gets most traders in trouble. Focus on mastering the process not the outcome!!!

My Best Ideas for tomorrow:

$AUPH will be watching for a break of $7.75 and possible push to $8.00 then $8.50

$WTW I could turn out to be wrong but this stock just has that look. So I will be watching for the break of $24.50 for push to $25.20 and potential parabolic run up to $26. If I play this stock and it works out according to plan I might even hold a few over night for a possible morning gap.

$AFSI will be eyeing for a short around the $13 level if the markets are weak. Will be looking for a push down to the $12.00 support. If I do take this short play I would not be looking trim and hold partial for a bigger move unless the markets are absolutely bleeding. Dips are being bought up in this market and so I'd be cautious about over staying in short positions in this market.

$CLDR this recent IPO has been exhibiting some sick daily ranges. I will be eyeing it for either a red-to-green move or OPR break (ideally around $20.50) in anticipation of a run up to its all-time high @ $22.

$GIMO nice low volume pull-back and hold of support @ $38.00 following the recent breakout on news that a hedge fund manager has acquired a large stake in this company. I will be watching it for a follow through day on Monday. Would love to see either a red-to-green set up or OPR ideally around $39 for a possible run to the recent high of $42.00

Best of luck on Monday....CHEERS!!!

                                 

How I made 18% gain on my $1,000 account in 1st week back to trading!!!

So as promised, here is the analysis of the trades I made in my first week back in the game!

Here's a screenshot of my trading journal in TraderVue:

As you can see from the screenshot, I grossed $254 or 25.4% gain on my $1,000 account from just 5 trades in my first week. After commissions and other fees (not shown); I netted a decent $180 in profits or about 18% growth in my first week.

My accuracy for the week, 80% (although based on a small sample size) was better than I anticipate it will be long term. My long term goal is 60 - 75% accuracy. 

My win:loss ratio was 2.20:1 ($71.62/$32.50). Although I would like to see this higher; I am very happy with this and I will be elated if I can maintain a 2:1 win loss ratio long term!!

Based on the statistics above; I can expect to gross around $50 profits per trade. Further I know that I will make between 1-2 trades per day or 5-10 trades per week next week. So my goal for next week will be to gross $250 - $500. So basically if at the end of next week I can at least match my performance from this week I will be satisfied. 

Bear in mind; my goal is a 50% growth on my account by the end of my first month. So if I can maintain my performance this week through the end of this month; I will easily eclipse my 50% goal. None the less; I will not allowed my self to get carried away with the "projection" game. My focus will continue to be making solid trades, base hits one at a time and if I'm performing and feeling well push for that home run trade near the end of the week like I attempted with $AUPH on Friday although it did not quite pan out. 

Looking forward to another solid week of trading. Always remember; defense first!!! Winning trades will take of them selves as long you're patient and let them play out. It's the big losing trades and consecutive losing trades you have to guard against! 

Best of luck next week...CHEERS!!!

Trade Review & Best Ideas for 5/12/2017

Today I made one trade and it was a loser. I took $HIMX long right on the open for a gap and go play but I got in a bit too early. I got in before there was a confirmed break of the pre-market high and the mini-dip that came in the first 2 minutes after the open was just enough to scare me out before rocketing higher and doing exactly what I was anticipated.

I was so upset at my self for messing up a set-up that was almost identical to the same set up I nailed in $MTBC yesterday. None the less, the loser took me to within $10 of my max daily loss and as per my trading plan rules I quit trading for the rest of day. So that tomorrow I start with a clean slate knowing that I only had small losing day today.

So without further ado; my best ideas for tomorrow:

Will be watching for red-to-green set up or OPR breakout on:

$AUPH
$IMMU
$PIRS

Will be watching for the break out of $14.50 on:

$VIPS

Good luck out there...lets get it!!!

So I made my first trades today and the first one was well executed gap-and-go set up in former recent runner $MTBC while the second was also a well executed 2nd pull-back momentum play in $PIRS. While I ended up profiting around $131 on the first trade and only $15 on the second I was happy with both trades.

While I was focused on $MTBC; $VRX completed the red-to-green move I was anticipating from last nights watch list and proceeded to rip to almost $13.00 from just below $12.00. After having a good morning, I decided to shut down my laptop. As a result I missed the 2nd set-up off last night's watch list in $WTW which came around mid-day.

I really don't mind missing trades as that's a part of trading. Besides everything's always 100 in hind sight!

Before moving onto my watches; I wanted to highlight one observation. Afternoon break outs are working again!!! That's not to say I'll be looking to aggressively trade afternoons now but I'll be a bit more open to it now should I see a really top quality set-up.

Now onto my best ideas for tomorrow:

$PIRS I believe this stock has a second green day in it after peaking out of it bull flag on the daily chart. This stock has a low float and close about 40 cents off all-time highs. It reported earnings after hours and is yet to show any sort of reaction. I would love to see it open around $4, show some slight weakness for the red-to-green + break of whole @ $4 play. This stock has the potential to at least touch the $4.40 all time high and possibly even break into new high territory.

$SHLD has finally made a decisive move out of the range I highlighted on Monday night. Based on its recent trading history; I believe this stock has more upside potential. The break of today high which was also a penny below the half dollar ($11.50) could see this stock rip to $12 and then possibly $13. Ideally I would love to see this stock form an intra-day flag beneath $11.50 then break out with volume.

$WTW another stock I've been stalking for the past couple days. Finally made the push I've been anticipating today when I wasn't paying attention! lol No need to fear missing out though as I believe this is only the start of this up leg. I would not be surprised if this stock touches $25 tomorrow and hopefully I'll be holding it long! I don't see a play in it from the open as its a bit extended intra-day. So I'll be keeping an eye on it for some sort of intra-day flag or late-day consolidation break out for the long.

$DATA textbook earnings flag + this stock trades very clean. $60.75 has acted as staunch resistance today. So the ideal set-up in this for me would be an open just below $60.75; slight weakness then red-to-green push through the resistance level with volume for a push to at minimum the low $62.00's.

If I see anything else worth watching based on pre-market activity in the morning as was the case with $MTBC today; I'll try to tweet about it...so be sure to follow me on twitter!

Watches for 5/10/2017

So after my first real session live, I made no trades.

Apparently my broker was having some technical issues with its platform and no short trades were allowed until around mid-day and thankfully so!

The only trade I attempted to make today was a short on $SHLD when it hard appeared to be setting up for a tank. However, my short order was rejected and initially I was disappointed as it dropped around 10 cents from where I would have entered putting me up immediately. I then turned away from  my laptop for a few minutes only to check back to see that I would have been stopped out for a loss if I had been able to take the trade.

Although I don't mind taking a losing trade; as taking small losses are a part of profitable trading; I should never have been attempting to trade $SHLD for the simple reason it WAS TRADING THIN AND HAD NO FREAKING ORDER FLOW/VOLUME!!! So even a tiny buy order could have and did eventually spike the stop 10-15 cents in mere seconds/minutes. I have a weakness for taking "set-ups" in stocks when they are thinly traded and I need to work really hard to avoid this.

Further $SHLD was still stuck inside the $10/$11 range I alluded to last night and really I should not be looking to touch this stock until it breaks it range or heavy volume starts coming in.

One of the changes I have made is to increase the minimum average trading volume in my nightly scan to 1,000,000 shares/day. Even so; I will make a special effort to stay away from stocks  that have no volume intra-day.

So with that (mouthful) being said; here are my watches for tomorrow:

$WTW still like this stock long; it put in a nice inside day today and I'll be watching tomorrow for a break of today's high and for a possible push up towards $25.20

$EXAS after a powerful breakout and strong run-up this stock has formed its 2nd "mini-flag" on slightly lower volume. I believe a break out of this flag (and whole number $35) could see a push to $36.15 and possible second break out into new highs.

$OSUR almost text book earnings flag here. A break of today's high could see a push to $15.72 and possibly even new 52-week highs.

$TRUE liked the chart set-up before I realized its up after hours on earnings news. Will be keeping an eye in case it set-ups a red-to-green or OPR break in the first 30 mins of trading.

$VRX beat chart; highly shorted with monster breakout on monster volume; very likely that it will have some follow through on the open tomorrow. I will be looking for a weak open then possible buy on red-to-green move or OPR breakout.

How I made $800 in $QIHU and $XRM this week!

When reviewing the trades below please bear in mind the following. At the moment, my initial risk on the swings I take is around $100 and in most instances usually less. At my current account size this is equivalent to roughly 1% of my account at risk per trade.

In this first trade, I made about $500 in $XRM from a long swing with a 6 day hold:



In this second trade, I made about $300 in $QIHU from a long swing with a 3 day hold:

$LEDS trade review!

Posted this set up here last Thursday. Ended up making a quick 22.38% gain on it from a 3 day hold!

How I made a 50% gain on $OSH!

Although I made a decent gain on this trade; I missed out on a lot of upside!

How I made a 60% gain shorting $SCTY!

Trading update, game plan and best ideas for tomorrow!

Today was simultaneously a good and a bad day for me. On the one hand, I locked in over $600 in gains and I'm sitting on $200ish in unrealized gains which means my account is now up over 10% from its closing value on Friday. However, on the other hand, I made a total mess of my exits in $OSH and $MNKD. 

With $OSH I sold 1/2 of my position into the gap up at $2.53ish which was not so bad. At least this gave me peace of mind to ride the other half knowing that its virtually impossible for me to not profit from the trade. However, ride I did not do. I got nervous and sold 1/4 position at $2.80 and then sold the remaining shares at $2.99 just as $OSH was breaking out of an intra-day base...big mistake! $OSH spiked a further $1.50+ from there. I should have caught this move with at least a 1/4 position...sigh.

With $MNKD I was totally impatient. After it gapped up following the news on Friday (AH) like I'd wanted and then started dipping...I sold my entire position @ $6.90. I did't even give it a chance to prove that it wasn't going higher and higher it went...closing up 14%+ and a few pennies off hod. The $8.00 profit target I had in mind looks almost a certainty now. Another trade I made a complete hash of.

I sold $SKUL for a loss as I'd planned as it never showed any signs of going higher. I held onto my $SCTY and $SPWR shorts like I'd planned to in last nights post. Although $SCTY hit my target...I have reason to believe it trades lower tomorrow. I will be looking to book it into a gap down or morning panic. My target is the $35/$36 area. $SPWR closed well off its lows after an ugly sell off in the morning. I think I made a mistake by not getting out of it flat before the close of trade as solars look like they want higher now. I will monitor it closely tomorrow and if I don't see immediate weakness...I'll be happy to get out of $SPWR around breakeven.

From a bigger picture perspective, I believe the markets want to bounce. We are very oversold here...just take a look at the McClellan Oscillator. In addition, many sectors/stocks formed hammer candles today after 5 - 6 consecutive down days. I think we get at least a 2 - 3 day bounce here and accordingly I'll be looking to add some long exposure from my ideas below: